Farnell’s Blue Mountain Weather Blog

Mild — But Not Quiet Family Day weekend delivered exactly what skiers love: soft, edgeable snow by day and a solid refreeze at night. Even a little mid-February sunshine — and at this point in the season, it actually starts to feel warm. The mild pattern continues this week… but now it gets interesting. A stalled front to our south is about to become a battleground. Multiple systems will ride along it, setting up one of those classic late-winter forecasting challenges: Snow? Freezing rain? Ice pellets? Rain? All remain possible. But here’s why this could turn into a snowy stretch. A Complicated Setup — With Upside Our quiet stretch ends Wednesday as moisture deepens along the stalled boundary. Precipitation should break out early — and the type will hinge on a razor-thin temperature profile. Snow is likely at onset, but a brief mix of ice pellets or freezing rain can’t be ruled out. By afternoon, I’m leaning toward a transition back to mainly snow as slightly colder air filters in. The Farnell Explainer: Why This Is So Tricky This is what meteorologists call a “thermal tightrope”. Temperatures just a few hundred metres above the ground are hovering slightly above freezing, while surface temperatures remain near or below zero. If that shallow warm layer deepens even slightly, snowflakes partially melt and refreeze as ice pellets, or become freezing rain if they don’t have time to refreeze before hitting the surface. If colder air wins out by even one degree then it’s mostly snow and are all smiles:) In setups like this, a tiny shift in wind direction or storm track can dramatically change what falls from the sky. That’s why this forecast carries high bust potential. High-end scenario: Up to 25 cm if we stay predominantly snow Low-end scenario: 3 cm snow with mixing and some rain You know which outcome I’m rooting for. POW!!! Thursday brings a break before a second system moves in Friday with a similar setup. Again, precipitation type will be temperature-dependent. Some guidance hints at a third system Sunday. If that materializes, slightly cooler air in place would favour snow over ice. Bottom line: this is a very active pattern — but small temperature shifts will make big differences. The In-Between Days Ironically, the best ski days this week may be between systems. Calmer winds. Improved visibility. Freshly groomed surfaces. And if we skew toward snow rather than rain, conditions could be excellent. Coverage across the mountain remains outstanding — and that’s not changing anytime soon. Early Look at Next Week Colder air returns for the final week of February, but nothing like the deep freeze we endured earlier this month. Additional snow chances remain in the mix, continuing what has already been a bumper season. Day-to-Day on the Slopes Tuesday: Mostly cloudy and mild. High near +3°C. Light winds. Wednesday: Snow developing, possibly mixed at times. High near –1°C. East winds 20–40 km/h. Thursday: Partly sunny. High near 0°C. Friday: Periods of snow or rain. High near freezing. Saturday: Milder with a break from storm activity. Sunday: Another system possible. Colder profile — more likely snow, but confidence remains low. Get out there — and most importantly, have fun. Senior Meteorologist,Anthony Farnell header[0].classList.add("farnell-log");