\nFamily Day weekend delivered exactly what skiers love: soft, edgeable snow by day and a solid refreeze at night. Even a little mid-February sunshine \u2014 and at this point in the season, it actually starts to feel warm.\n<\/p>\n
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\nThe mild pattern continues this week\u2026 but now it gets interesting.\n<\/p>\n
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\nA stalled front to our south is about to become a battleground. Multiple systems will ride along it, setting up one of those classic late-winter forecasting challenges:
\nSnow?
\nFreezing rain?
\nIce pellets?
\nRain?
\nAll remain possible.\n<\/p>\n
\n
\nBut here\u2019s why this could turn into a snowy stretch.\n<\/p>\n\n
\n\n
\nOur quiet stretch ends Wednesday as moisture deepens along the stalled boundary.\n<\/p>\n
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\nPrecipitation should break out early \u2014 and the type will hinge on a razor-thin temperature profile. Snow is likely at onset, but a brief mix of ice pellets or freezing rain can\u2019t be ruled out. By afternoon, I\u2019m leaning toward a transition back to mainly snow as slightly colder air filters in.\n<\/p>\n\n
\n\n
\nThis is what meteorologists call a \u201cthermal tightrope\u201d. Temperatures just a few hundred metres above the ground are hovering slightly above freezing, while surface temperatures remain near or below zero. If that shallow warm layer deepens even slightly, snowflakes partially melt and refreeze as ice pellets, or become freezing rain if they don\u2019t have time to refreeze before hitting the surface. If colder air wins out by even one degree then it\u2019s mostly snow and are all smiles:)\n<\/p>\n
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\nIn setups like this, a tiny shift in wind direction or storm track can dramatically change what falls from the sky.\n<\/p>\n
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\nThat\u2019s why this forecast carries high bust potential.\n<\/p>
\nYou know which outcome I\u2019m rooting for.\n
\nPOW!!!<\/b>\n<\/p>\n
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\nThursday brings a break before a second system moves in Friday with a similar setup. Again, precipitation type will be temperature-dependent.\n<\/p>\n
\n
\nSome guidance hints at a third system Sunday. If that materializes, slightly cooler air in place would favour snow over ice.\n<\/p>\n
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\nBottom line: this is a very active pattern \u2014 but small temperature shifts will make big differences.\n<\/p>\n
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\nIronically, the best ski days this week may be between systems.\n<\/p>\n
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\nCalmer winds. Improved visibility. Freshly groomed surfaces. And if we skew toward snow rather than rain, conditions could be excellent.\n<\/p>\n
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\nCoverage across the mountain remains outstanding \u2014 and that\u2019s not changing anytime soon.\n<\/p>\n
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\nColder air returns for the final week of February, but nothing like the deep freeze we endured earlier this month. Additional snow chances remain in the mix, continuing what has already been a bumper season.\n<\/p>\n
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\nTuesday:<\/b> Mostly cloudy and mild. High near +3\u00b0C. Light winds.
\nWednesday:<\/b> Snow developing, possibly mixed at times. High near \u20131\u00b0C. East winds 20\u201340 km\/h.
\nThursday:<\/b> Partly sunny. High near 0\u00b0C.
\nFriday:<\/b> Periods of snow or rain. High near freezing.
\nSaturday:<\/b> Milder with a break from storm activity.
\nSunday:<\/b> Another system possible. Colder profile \u2014 more likely snow, but confidence remains low.
\n<\/p>\n\n
\n\nGet out there \u2014 and most importantly, have fun.<\/b>\n\n
\n\n\nSenior Meteorologist,
Anthony Farnell<\/em><\/span>\n\n\n\n