Why Blue Mountain’s snowmaking window still looks good
November is off to a record-warm start, and there’s little winter weather in sight. But here’s the good news: we’re still five weeks from opening day at Blue Mountain Resort, so lots can (and will) change by then.
The big weather story since summer has been the intensifying El Niño and how that exceptionally warm Pacific water might shape our ski season. El Niño alters the jet stream and shifts weather patterns around the planet, and that often leads to more extremes. This super El Niño is stronger than anything ever recorded, and it will reach it’s peak in the next couple weeks. We’re already feeling its effects in the very mild temperatures across Canada and the extra storms from California to Florida. If El Niño were the only player on the field, Ontario ski hills would be bracing for a very mild, wet December. Thankfully… It’s NOT!
Something else remarkable is happening 30 kilometres above the North Pole. The stratosphere is suddenly warming, causing the polar vortex to split apart. When the polar vortex is strong and spins near the pole, it traps frigid Arctic air. When it splits or gets disrupted, that cold spreads south and can bring major winter storms and lake-effect snow to the lower latitudes. That pattern can last for weeks or more. This is a record-early sudden stratospheric warming, and that matters because we don’t know how the atmosphere will react, or whether enough cold air has built up to have the same impact as it would later in the winter.
So, we’re heading into December with conflicting signals. El Niño says warm and rainy; the polar vortex disruption points to cold and snowy (probably). The jury is still out on how this will play out at Blue Mountain, but one thing is certain: the mild, super-calm fall weather we’ve been enjoying won’t last.
The most likely outcome is a more subdued El Niño influence in December, favouring above-seasonal temperatures without the extremes. That would mean overnights at Blue Mountain becoming plenty cold enough to fabricate snow by late November or early December. Recent BMR investments in snowmaking make it easier for the operations team to take advantage of any early season cold air windows to put snow on the mountain fast. It may not feel like it now, but ski season is right around the corner.
Next week, I’ll dive into those unusually mild Georgian Bay water temperatures and how it could be a ‘Wild Card’ when the cold air FINALLY arrives.
Anthony Farnell
Senior Meteorologist